Chicago Sports, Tuesday Armchair Quarterback

One Bears loss does not end the season…yet

Wow judging from all the chatter around Chicago, you’d think the Bear’s season officially ended last Sunday, 15 games early. Relax people. see if your ObamaCare can spring for some Xanax or something. Yes there were turnovers and missed tackles and mental lapses. It certainly wasn’t as bad as last season, we have a lot of mediocrity to achieve before that happens.

In fact, let’s look at how last season ended.  ( Bears fans should watch this video every Sunday just before the game. The players and the coaches should have it running on auto-repeat throughout Halas Hall):

 

Some common rants across the Blogosphere:

We Were Supposed to Win This One

Uh there’s a reason these games are played instead of just letting Madden NFL decide who goes to the Super Bowl.  As the saying goes, on any given Sunday any team can win in the NFL.  Sure, last year’s Buffalo Bills team underachieved and they haven’t been much better in recent years.  Still, teams vary from year to year which brings up….

History was on our side

Any financial advisor worth her salt will tell you that Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results.  It doesn’t matter that the Bills have never won at Soldier Field or that the Bears almost always win their home opener. Never won at Soldier Field? That just makes it more and more inevitable that some day a Bills team would do it. Last year Drew Bees finally won at Solder Field. Even the crappy Bears teams of the late 90s and early 2000s managed to win a couple times in Green Bay.

Jay Isn’t An Elite Quarterback

Neither is Joe Flacco or Eli Manning really.  If you look at future Hall-of-Famer Tom Brady’s numbers to Jay Cutler:

T Brady 29/56 249 1 0
J Cutler 34/49 349 2 2
(Source:  ESPN).

I didn’t watch that game but Brady does well when his team is winning by more than two scores but in closer games he gets rattled and tries to force things just like any other QB who wants to win.   It’s just as likely Brady didn’t have any interceptions because of time of possession. You cannot throw an interception when your team is on defense (right?).  The New England Patriots were essentially out of the game by early 4th quarter. At least the Bears tied it up and took it to overtime.

Looking Ahead…Bearly

This can obviously go one of two ways. I’ve been a Bears fan long enough to know that this could be the 4-12 seasons of 199 and 1998 and 2002. Or the coaches make some adjustments and the team comes out stronger. The first two games of the NFL are considered pivotal because no one really knows what a team is like under the hood.  Most players are still healthy and performing at a high level and there isn’t enough film available to have seen everything a team does. Just as many 2-0 teams end up missing the playoffs as 0-2 teams win their divisions. A stat I totally made up.

San Fran looked elite against a bad Dallas team. The Jets are good but not great and Green Bay is vulnerable. Considering everyone would be glad to just be 2-2 In four weeks, if somehow the Bears are 3-1, no one will remember this Bills game. And if they are 1-3 or 0-4, you know that you have the rest of your Sundays free for yard work, winter maintenance and holiday shopping.

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Tuesday Armchair Quarterback

Jay Cutler Contract: Stop bitching about it already

By now everyone who cares knows the details for Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler’s seven-year, $126.7 million contract.  According to a league source, the deal didn’t include a signing bonus and has $54 million in total guaranteed money.  The deal averages $18.1 million per year.  source

jaycutler graphic

Note:  I created this graphic based on numbers reported here.  If the info is wrong, don’t blame be, blame Yahoo Sports.

I don’t speak NFL salary cap but it looks to me like the Bears essentially signed Cutler to a three year deal when you consider that there is no guaranteed money owed to Cutler beyond Year Three.   After that, the Bears can keep or release him depending on how things look.   If he continues to improve and the Bears succeed, then they can keep him. If things go sour, they can part ways at a time when it is better to invest in a new franchise quarterback.  My definition of improve is:

  • make the playoffs the next three years
  • go deep in the playoffs with at least one NFC championship trip
  • sweep the packers 2 of the next three years.

Okay perhaps that last one is asking too much, but we are overdue.

Why not re-sign Josh McCown and get a young QB in the draft to develop?  Cutler is four years younger than the 34-year-old McCown and has superior arm strength and consistency. Plus, who’s to say that McCown won’t be a one-year wonder? Cutler has proven throughout his career that he is capable of performing at a high level when the people are around him.   [I’m not saying that  you don’t still try to re-sign McCown and get a QB in the draft.  It just means it becomes less of a do or die imperative.]

Remember this is a Bears team that almost went to the playoffs in spite of their defense, which needs the most amount of work.    If their defense was just a shadow of the defense that started in September, Chicago would have had a reason to care about NFL football one more weekend (other than to see Green Bay lose).  I see this as a 3 year window to get to the Super Bowl or start over.

It’s all about flexibility and Bears GM Phil Emery did a remarkable job structuring Cutler’s contract,  front-loading the deal so all of the guaranteed money will be earned over the first three seasons. That provides Chicago with  enough flexibility to fix the defense now and when young players such as Alshon Jeffery, Kyle Long, Jordan Mills and many others are due for extensions, evaluate giving them lucrative deals.

Re-signing Jay Cutler was a smart decision and it’s time to move one and stop bitching about it.

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Chicago Sports, Tuesday Armchair Quarterback

Chicago Bears Interesting Statistic for 2013 Season

When I was a young lad, I wanted every team that beat the Bears to miss the playoffs that year. Some years, that would have required canceling the post-season. With today’s Bear’s game against the Green Bay Packers putting it all on the line, let’s look back at the season so far.

Teams that beat the Bears

St Louis                    Washington
Lions                         Lions again
Philadelphia            New Orleans
Minnesota

The Rams and the Deadskins* slim playoff hopes were mercifully put to rest before December. Detroit beat the Bears twice and what did they get for their trouble? Eliminated from the playoffs via their own self destruction.

What to say about the Vikings. They split the series but any playoff shot they had got buried in their quarterback by committee controversy.

Philly em-Bear-assed the Bears on National TV and New Orleans did a good job too, especially when Drew Brees drew veteran Lance Briggs offsides on 4th and 1, extending a drive and essentially ending the Captain Comeback reputation Jay Cutler was starting to create. Both these teams could miss the playoffs if they don’t win today.


Teams that Bears beat

Bengals            Pittsburgh
Baltimore        Dallas
Giants              Cleveland
Minnesota

Cincinnati lost on opening day but then went on to have a stellar season, securing a playoff berth by winning their division. Don’t get me started on the Playoff System.

Pittsburgh and Baltimore, somehow, are surprisingly still in the playoff hunt. Although a lot of things — like the cure for cancer, production of cold fusion and co-operation of Congress — have to happen in order for one of them to make it.

The Giants lost to the Bears though it was one of their best loses up to that point. They then went on to start winning and even looked like they might do a playoff run like they did in 2008.  Alas, they just couldn’t overcome their own demons.

Even Cleveland was mathematically still in the playoff hunt until the refs decided that the Patriots needed a little extra help.

And Dallas has a shot to make the playoffs if they can knock off Philly, which would help prove my theory, which is that statistically speaking, it is better for your playoff hopes to lose to the Bears. Hear that Green Bay**?

* — I refuse to use the team name.
** — yeah I also know the season ends today.

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Current Events, Ready for some Football

Chicago Bears: Pretenders or Contenders?

It’s a bit early to have visions of facing Peyton Manning in the Superbowl, but the Bears have surprised many fans this season with their 3-0 start.  The Bears have started well before, only to fizzle once the season brought on real opponents, or the injury bugs.

My prediction for this Sunday and next: Bears lose a close one to Detroit.  Then next week they shock everyone by beating the Saints, with New Orleans never in the lead.  Because this is what the Bears do, they win games they have no business winning and then they go and lose games they should have wrapped up.

I thought this even before I heard Charles Tillman was Probable and now I just think it’s par for the course.

I first became a Bears fan in 1995.  I wasn’t much of a watch sports-on-TV type of guy.   But I got into a Confidence Pool at work and figured the best way to learn about the teams was to start watching.  And for better or worse, the 1995 Bears team taught me a lot about how the pieces are not always in place.

It was the year they went 9-7 and missed the playoffs.  They didn’t win their division because of losses to Green Bay and they didn’t get a Wild Card spot because of a San Francisco loss to Atlanta.  A loss brought about by a field goal if I remember correctly.  It was such a painful loss that I’m sure I’ve done all I can do to remove it from my memory banks.

So while that wasn’t a good year for the Bears, it was decent preparation for a lot of bad Bears seasons to follow but it was a great lesson in how Professional Football works:

  • If you don’t win your division, you might not go to the playoffs,
  • If you don’t win the tie breakers, you won’t make the WildCard
  • If you are the Chicago Bears, you seldom control your own destiny.

Another reason I think Detriot will win this Sunday.  Remember the catch that wasn’t a catch?  Yeah Karma is gonna come cash that in.

 

 

Going back to that dream Superbowl. How ironic would it be if the Football Gods did have Jay Cutler face his former team, which is now Quarterbacked by the only guy to ever beat the Bears in a Superbowl! A fan can dream.
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